Buy Moutai or Yili?
More than a year ago, I wrote a post called Buy Maotai or Buy Yili? In the post, I expressed my preference for Yili in the medium term (in the long term, I wasn't sure). This post encountered a lot of ridicule. Many readers believed that Yili and Mao
The general consensus about Moutai is that it has the best business model, with products sold on a cash-only basis, long shelf life, and no risk of inventory deterioration. It is considered an asset-light business that can be managed well even by les
Many people attach great importance to business models, and some even believe that it is the most important indicator for stock selection. However, I would like to share my views on business models, which is why I am more optimistic about Yili than K
The business model is important but not extremely important. In my view, it is a necessary but not sufficient condition.
To say that a business model is necessary means that it is very important, and certain businesses with poor models should not be chosen. A poor business model often leads to an uncertain future. Such businesses cannot be valued, thus cannot be bought
But the business model is not so important. When certain bottom lines are met, the importance of the business model diminishes. For example, a score of 60 is a passing grade, so whether it's 80 or 100 isn't as critical.
The business model is somewhat like the moat of a castle. Of course, we like a wide moat. But it's possible that the moat is so wide, but the castle is gone.
Sometimes the supply-demand relationship is more important while meeting the bottom line of the basic business model.
Taking Baijiu and dairy products as examples, it is highly possible that in the coming years, the business model of Baijiu will still be better than that of dairy products. However, the demand for Baijiu continues to decline while the demand for dair
Choosing stocks is much like doing multiplication. The final result is a product of a series of factors including business model, supply and demand relationship, industry space, etc. A poor business model is like 0*xxx; but with a good business model
At the end of the day, whether choosing Moutai or Yili is not important. What I want to emphasize today is the role of clear business models in selecting companies.
Kweichow Moutai (SH600519) and Yili Shares (SH600887)


