Guosen Securities, Ren He, Wang Yuelei, Wang Jing, November 5th, 2025

Core Viewpoints

Review of 2025: The pressure on the property market will not decrease, returning to before "924". New home sales fell quarter by quarter after a brief period of positive growth in 2024Q4. In 2025Q3, it was-13% year-on-year, equivalent to 46% of 2019Q

The way to stop the decline: income, expectations, external forces. Income confidence strongly explains the medium-term trend of house prices. Returning the income confidence index to above 50 is a necessary condition for the continued stability of h

Investment advice: Wait for the right time, seize the wave segment, and pay attention to structural opportunities. Before the systematic reversal of housing prices, it is difficult for the sector to emerge clear trend opportunities, but the strong wa

Risk warning: the confidence in macroeconomic and residents' income is not as expected; the progress and intensity of future policy launch are not as expected; the recovery of real estate sales volume and price is not as expected; real estate enterpr