A new study from researchers at the University of Birmingham suggests that aviation will continue to contribute to climate change, even if it meets its Paris Agreement targets.

They assessed three different pathways for the international recovery from the pandemic – a fast recovery of three years, a slow recovery of 15 years, and a longer-term shift in habits towards more web conferences instead of face-to-face meetings. They also modelled the effect of measures aimed at reducing aviation’s climate impact.

Their findings, published today in the journal Nature Communications, are that non-CO2 effects will continue to have a significant impact in the coming years. These include the formation of nitrogen oxides, ozone and contrailcirrus clouds, all of which have been shown to contribute to global warming.

However, they’re not included in the Civil Aviation Organisation’s goal of climate-neutral growth, and they’re only partly addressed in Flightpath 2050 – the European Commission’s vision for aviation.

Study co-author Dr Simon Blakey, senior lecturer in mechanical engineering at the University of Birmingham, commented: "Technological improvements to engines and airframes and operations won't be enough to sufficiently reduce the impact of aviation on climate change. We must explore all mitigation options in parallel – including the increased use of sustainable fuels and market-based measures in order to limit aviation's impact on the environment.

"Accounting for sustainable fuels must include the impact of non-CO2 emissions in use as well as the CO2 emissions in fuel production. If we base all our calculations on CO2 alone, we miss the large improvements in non-CO2 emissions that these fuels can offer, particularly in reducing particulate matter emissions which contribute to an increased warming effect at cruise conditions."

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