Same-day delivery may not have lived up to its full potential.1
Back in 2016, it looked as if fast delivery was ready to take off: same-day and instant delivery options were projected to reach a combined share of 20 to 25 percent of the market by 2025, and automated guided vehicles or drones would likely play a large role in parcel delivery.2
By the end of 2023, the world had taken a different path after the capacity constraints experienced during COVID-19 and the slowing down of funding for new same-day delivery business models.

Does this mean speed is no longer important? Not at all. It’s likely to grow sales and ensure repeat orders. But there are other factors at play, most notably customers’ growing preference for reliability over speed. In fact, the variety of delivery options, and the perceived quality of the delivery service, are major decision-making criteria for online customers.

Same-day delivery, where a customer places an e-commerce order and takes delivery of it within the same calendar day, is a small segment of the market. Our analysis suggests that in most countries, same-day accounts for less than 5 percent of the courier, express, and parcel (CEP) market. For instance, in France and Germany, approximately 1 percent of the CEP market offers same-day delivery. In Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the proportion is somewhat higher at around 2 to 3 percent. In China, we estimate that the share is no higher than 4 percent overall, with 10 to 15 percent in intracity deliveries within major cities.

This article examines six variables that drive the potential for same-day delivery services. Combined, these conditions define the pace at which same-day delivery adoption may be approaching. However, retail, e-commerce, and parcel companies needn’t wait for variables to align before exploring faster delivery options. While companies keep an eye on market conditions, they might consider “24-hour delivery” as an alternative value proposition that resonates with customers’ desire for a variety of options that offer speed, reliability, and reasonable cost.3

Retailers, tech start-ups, e-commerce, and CEP companies looking to enter the same-day market could consider the following steps: